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  • hiralal
    06-04 10:07 PM
    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.





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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-06 11:56 AM
    A cardiologist died and was given an elaborate funeral.

    A huge heart covered in flowers stood behind the casket during the service. Following the eulogy, the heart opened, and the casket rolled inside. The heart then closed, sealing the doctor in the beautiful heart forever.

    At that point, one of the mourners burst into laughter. When confronted, he said, "I'm sorry, I was just thinking of my own funeral. You see I'm a gynecologist."

    At that point, the proctologist fainted.





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  • gcisadawg
    12-23 12:24 AM
    Good post,
    You post is a testimony that not all hope is lost with Islam. There are still people like yourselves who can think objectively or at least open to one.
    And this is the reason why I am not against Islam as this would also mean that I am raising my fingers on the guys like urself.


    Dude, if ss1026 is not on this forum, then is the absence of ss1026 a testimony to the fact that all hopes are lost with islam? I dont buy this line of thinking. we are better than that!





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  • Winner
    03-25 11:01 AM
    Thanks for contributing to IV with meaningful discussions. Would you all consider making a monetary contribution to IV?



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  • hate_me
    12-30 01:45 PM
    Are you joking????? When was Pakistan stable, that India could destablize it??? A country whose creation itself was based on greed and lies, has just given military coups one after another, because of greed, its politicians, army chief's never gave a chance for Pakistan to stabilize. Hate and terrorism is propagated in all madarasa's, for once just consider all the conflicts and issues between India and Pakistan are solved, do think Pakistan will be stable then, not at all because shite and sunni will start killing each other and destabilize Pakistan. So open your eyes and accept the truth, pakistan was never peaceful since its creation, pakistan is and will remain a problematic country, because its creation is based on greed and hatred. Funny though how pakistan percieves things, previuosly it was trying to call terrorism as freedom fight and now terrorists itself as non-state actors, oh yeah and the famous musharaf's so called democracy. Pakistan is en route to self destruction, sooner pakistani's understand it, the better.

    The Pakistani security establishment believes, and there is probably some truth in it, that India is already supporting groups that are trying to destabilize Pakistan. And because of that, they view India as an existential threat to Pakistan, and justify their own activities.

    Its quite a vicious circle.....





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  • sanju
    12-19 10:18 PM
    Looks like time to shutdown IV site..

    I suggested long time back .. do not allow anyone to start the threads ..

    Only allow users who are active contributors to IV budget.


    Now this site is becoming like yahoo chats ...

    God help Immigration community ...

    EB3 is not moving ...EB2 dead stop ...


    sriramkalyan,

    I find it irritating that every now and then, some tom dick and harry comes to these forms and say - "time to close down" whenever you see something that you don't like. Frankly, this shallow view and negative attitude is irritating.



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  • H1B-GC
    09-26 08:50 AM
    Also,as America becomes more socialistic the power of lobbying from companies becomes even more less appealing to the Politicians. Our interests had to be protected by ourselves.

    http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1843168,00.html





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  • qasleuth
    03-31 07:35 PM
    I am not convinced with the whole systematic preadjudication logic at all. I think it has to do with the mistakenly released memo by USCIS and the criteria which is listed in it. Companies meeting the criteria listed in that memo's H1s/I140s are being looked at and I485 app in the same file. There is no trend in the posts on this site by people who received RFEs to suggest systematic preadjudication, they are all over the place. EB2, EB3 - priority date-years ranging from 2001 to 2006, received RFEs.

    USCIS seems to be making a coordinated attempt to preadjudicate in order to avoid future backlogs (to achieve their metrics on processing times). See thread on Processing Time Targets they have set for themselves: http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=24747



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  • GCnightmare
    08-02 02:55 PM
    Thanks for the quick reply. I never overstayed my I-94 either before leaving US or re-entering US. But just a thought... Do you mean if somebody covered by 245(i) and never left US after filing the labor before April 2001, still be eligible to adjust status?
    Thanks





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  • Macaca
    03-19 01:20 PM
    New Congress, Same Obstacles for Democratic Lobbyists (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/18/AR2007031801138.html), By Al Kamen, Monday, March 19, 2007

    The Democrats' takeover of Congress had a lot of their interest groups -- labor, enviros, etc. -- elbowing ferociously for long-sought legislation for their constituents. The groups' lobbyists are feeling the pressure.

    The National Air Traffic Controllers Association has been working hard to reopen contract bargaining with the Federal Aviation Administration -- it feels it got the short end in negotiations last year about work rules and pay -- and wants Congress to let it do so. But it's a tough go, NATCA President Patrick Forrey said in a March 10 "National Office Update."

    "I can imagine how frustrat[ed] our membership must be that our language has not been enacted to date," Forrey wrote, "considering the tremendous amount of support in PAC dollars and campaign activity we invested into the election process." No doubt. Sounds like they've got a good consumer fraud case if they want to pursue it.

    "For those who believe this should be a slam dunk," he said, "let me remind you that there are an incredible amount of organizations, associations, special interests and of course labor unions that have been subject[ed] to 12 years of bad government . . . the problem is, we are all competing against each other to get our separate issues corrected."

    But the Washington office is working on it. "If you could be in my shoes and talk with these very supportive members," Forrey explained, "you'd have the opportunity to realize the difficulty in undoing something that falls in a long line of things that need undoing . . . that is why it's so difficult to get the total support" from the House leadership on "controversial bills" that might hurt passage of other bills.

    But not to worry. "This past week has left us very encouraged about the progress we are making in securing a temporary legislative fix," he said, with Reps. James L. Oberstar (D-Minn.) and Jerry F. Costello (D-Ill.) having penned a joint letter to House Appropriations chair David Obey (D-Wis.) to put language in the Iraq war supplemental appropriations bill that would reopen contract negotiations.

    "However, as of today," Forrey wrote, "we have not seen or been told of any language inserted" in the Iraq bill. "It appears that the final approval is going to have to come from Speaker Pelosi," he said, "so we are rounding up all of the support we can garner from" other members to get her "to give the nod."

    (Last Thursday, the Appropriations Committee approved the bill without the language.)



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  • h1techSlave
    04-07 04:43 PM
    My arguments apply to people with a single home to worry about. People who want to move from apartment into a house of their own.

    Managing a rental property (when you have more than one house, you have to rent the other houses), is a totally different ball game. I have no personal experience with that field, but am actively considering it. It doesn't cost you much money to think/study about it, right?:)

    he is /was talking about buying 2-3 houses. BTW that was then (2001) and this is now ..between then and now ..millions and millions of houses have been built and given to people with zero / no / absolutely no credit / downpayment. BTW I buy stocks when it is low and sell when it is high ..buying 2 houses or even 1 house in place like california ..is a big big thing (since no lender will give you loan unless you put in atleast 10 % ( 15 % - if you want to avoid PMI) ..just for argument sake ..say even if a person buy 3 adjacent (if u are lucky) houses (not townhomes) ..do you then buy 3 mowers or move them from 1 yard to another ? 3 bills ..prop / hoa / utilities ..it is a nightmare to even think about it ..and more so when you read articles from experts and economists who say prices will fall 15% more ..best is to have diversified portfolio with minimum expense (3 homes is big big expense)





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  • santb1975
    09-28 06:05 PM
    After 8 yrs of Bush, I sure am ready for Democrats to take over. America needs a change. But Sen. Obama's victory will surely spell doom and gloom for the EB community - of which I am one.

    I have been in the United States for 10 years - LEGALLY. I came here for my Masters and I work as a Compliance Analyst in the Pharmaceutical Industry. I have bent over backwards to follow the letter of the law, irrespective of how convoluted it is. I pay taxes and contribute to the American economy and I hope that I can settle down in this great country.

    I want the Democrats to win...but guess what - the failed CIR 2007 woke me up to the fact that Sen. Durbin will never make it easy for EB immigrants. His hostility towards this community is making me explore opportunities outside of the United States after spending 10 years in this great land. I have little bit more time to decide what I want to do but if things don't take a turn for the better on the Immigration front, I have made up my mind to pursue opportunities outside of the United States.

    Till date, I only see Durbin driving immigration - and it is definitely against the EB community. My question to Sen. Obama - what do you have to offer to us, the highly skilled immigrants? Would you rather we just liquidate all our assets (home, stocks, bonds, vehicles, etc) here in America and take it with us to another country that is more welcoming???



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  • smisachu
    12-30 10:01 PM
    Why should we waste our resources when Pakistanis are doing the damage by themselves??? The joke is Pak blaming some poor Indian for a bomb blast which was quickly owned up by a domestic terrorist organization!!
    Pakistan is a begging bowl which is trying to blackmail US by threatening to pull out troops from Afgan border..so US and UK are trying to pacify India telling them that they will put pressure on Pak to do something.
    And you know what a bigger joke is? your slum dog cum president who told Larry King that no one from "his part of the country" were involved in the attack!!! What is his part of the country? his toilet seat??? It has not been 1 year since he killed his wife he was jumping all over Sarah Palin like a horny dog!! Barking dogs seldom bite, so don't just thump your chest just yet. When the fox has to die it runs towards the lion. That is what Pakistan is doing by pretending to pose as if it will go to war with India. If India attacks Pak will fold it's tail between its legs and run to US, like Nawaz sherif did during the Kargil war. We have beaten you in 4 wars, how may more beatings will it take for it to sink into your thick skull that Pakistan can NEVER beat India. Period!!

    Pakistan will disintegrate with in the next few years if they don't seek India's support in whacking them Jehadi SOB's. Baluchitan, NWFP, Sindh are all going to be independent countries and the Pak president can easily rule " his part of the country"

    Buddyinsfo you might try to bring friction among Indians by pitting people from different states against each other, but remember when it comes to any outside force we are all Indians first and we will Kick your Ass...

    This is like an ant taking on an elephant, if half the men in Punjab, Guj and Rajastan stand on the border and Pee; Pakistan will be washed away in a flood of Urine...If you poor people want to get killed, there are better painless ways than enrage India. So it is in Paks best interest to request India to come in clean up the terrorist camps which are now turning against Pakistan itself!!


    Pranab Muks, the foreign minister needs to be applauded (?) for creating a drama of sorts by setting up the army against Pakis assuming that the Pakis will give in to the pressure and return the militants that India is looking for. On the other hand, the Prime Minister ManMohan Singh was consistently giving out statements that India is not in favour of war and never was (completely contradicting Pranab Muks' moves) and as per the latest news that emerged out of nowhere (???) there seemed to have been some kinda communication between the military officials of both the countries and they've come to some sort of understanding that war was not in the best interest of both the countries and only dialogue was as India was apprehensive as to what Pak's response to a military strike wud be...the drama continues and its a big joke. With China playing the mediator and India (silently and 100% dependent on US and UK put pressure on Pak but to no avail) had to succumb to the boomeranged efforts by playing the peace game now. One only needs to wait to see what happens next. But one thing is for sure...India will never strike Pakistan at a point when there is really no open support from anywhere. At some point (yesterday?) the honorable Prime Minister was looking for Iran to pressurise Pakistan (by calling Ahmadinejad) and this in itself speaks volumes !!! India is making a joke of itself...Had it been US, they'd have made a strike at Paki's terrorist sites in no time (as they did after 9/11). Its been over a month of Mumbai strikes and the way India is showing its weakness makes us wonder if they really have solid evidence against Pakistan. The latest news goes like...The Mumbai Govt has ordered probes into the attacks...Wonder what needs to be probed now(after one month) and that too after the entire nation has been made to believe that it was always Pakistan and claiming and shouting at the top of their lungs that they had SUFFICIENT evidence!!!!





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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-28 10:09 PM
    Pray for Wisdom:

    A PRAYER Dear Lord,

    I pray for Wisdom to understand my man;

    Love to forgive him;

    And Patience for his moods.

    Because, Lord, if I pray for Strength,

    I'll beat him to death.

    AMEN



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  • sriramkalyan
    12-19 02:26 PM
    Looks like time to shutdown IV site..

    I suggested long time back .. do not allow anyone to start the threads ..

    Only allow users who are active contributors to IV budget.


    Now this site is becoming like yahoo chats ...

    God help Immigration community ...

    EB3 is not moving ...EB2 dead stop ...





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  • Macaca
    01-10 05:54 PM
    K Street Expects Thin '08 Agenda (http://rollcall.com/issues/53_76/news/21521-1.html) By Kate Ackley | ROLL CALL, Jan 7 2008

    Lobbyists expect 2008 to be a year of volatile partisan bickering from the campaign trail to the floor of the House and Senate, likely resulting in only a short list of legislative accomplishments that actually cross the finish line.

    "In the past 12 months Democrats and Republicans weren't playing very well together in the sandbox, and the next 12 months I predict it's going to be even worse in the sandbox," said GOP tax lobbyist Ken Kies of the Federal Policy Group.

    Don't expect comprehensive immigration or health care reform to pass; instead, lobbyists say they are urging Members to split off little pieces like increased visas for certain workers or a law mandating doctors to electronically prescribe medicines to their Medicare patients.

    Patent reform legislation could make it. Ditto for popular measures such as a tax credit for companies that do research and development, especially if Congress puts together an economic stimulus package that could also address the housing and lending crisis. However, trade agreements and the reauthorization of No Child Left Behind would be much heavier lifts.

    On the flip side, legislative gridlock easily could help lobbyists trying to fend off unwanted tax increases and sweeping climate-change legislation. "It's almost always easier to stop things, but it's going to be even easier this year with a very limited amount of time on the Congressional calendar and the politically charged atmosphere," said Democratic strategist Chris Jennings of Jennings Policy Strategies.

    Mark Merritt, president of the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association, said his group is taking cues from the White House contestants when it comes to health care.

    "The presidential campaigns provide a good bellwether as to the kind of issues that are going to resonate in Congress this year," Merritt said. "Issues that are new, involve change, issues that don't involve hobbling around with the status quo but doing things differently."

    Merritt said his group is pushing for the bill to mandate electronic prescriptions by doctors for Medicare patients. "It's compelling, it offers change plus safety for patients and savings for the government," he said. "I think these are the issues that are going to succeed this year."

    Even so, Merritt doesn't expect an easy road. He said PCMA plans to ramp up its e-prescribing lobbying effort with polling, blogging and TV and radio advertisements.

    Jennings, a health care consultant and former senior health care adviser to President Bill Clinton, said Congress will likely take up legislation this year to avoid Medicare physician payment cuts and to jump-start e-prescribing. But don't expect broader health care reforms to go anywhere this year beyond campaign discussions, he added.

    "I think you're going to see Congress dabbling in incremental reforms this year, but primarily it will be a year to lay the foundation for a broader debate on health care reform in 2009 and beyond," said Jennings, who counts PCMA among his clients.

    Despite long odds for the free-trade agenda, Bruce Josten, executive vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said his group will put a lot of effort into getting Congress to take up pending agreements with Colombia, Panama and South Korea.

    "A lot of people are going to tell you they're going to do nothing, but my hunch is they're going to move on some of them," he said. "Clearly the business community will put a lot of effort behind getting them to be taken up."

    John Castellani, president of Business Roundtable, agreed that his group will push for all three trade agreements - no matter how steep the odds. BRT also will urge Congress to mandate e-prescribing and call for a move to electronic medical records.

    Steve Elmendorf - the founder of Elmendorf Strategies, which represents the Coalition for Patent Fairness, which supports a House-passed patent reform bill and a version pending in the Senate - said he expects the Senate to take up the issue early this year, perhaps hitting the floor by February, where it will encounter fierce opposition by pharmaceutical companies in particular.

    "There aren't many bills that are around that have passed the House with a bipartisan majority," Elmendorf said. "We believe if we got to the floor it would get more than 60 votes. The other side is going to aggressively try and kill it. It's going to be a hard fight."

    The entertainment industry is hoping to get traction for one of its long-running issues. It has pushed for new laws to protect copyrighted materials, and the Chamber's Josten said the larger business community and some unions are getting on board because they are worried about the impact that counterfeiting has on jobs and sectors beyond Hollywood, including pharmaceuticals.

    "We're starting to turn a corner with Congress on this," Josten said. "I think we're going to see legislation this year come out of Congress."

    Business groups will look to fend off increased taxes on hedge funds and private equity partnerships and prevent massive carbon-curving climate-change legislation. "It's going to be a big fight," Josten said.



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  • Beemar
    12-26 12:52 PM
    Guys,

    Looks like we may see some action from India within hours now. The war clouds have been gathering ever since the Mumbai attacks. But now the signs of an imminent war are unmistakable.

    Apparently India had given pak a deadline of one month to hand over the perpetrators of this attack. The deadline expires on December 26th.

    Both India and pak have canceled the leaves of their military personnel.

    People in border villages of Rajasthan are evacuating.

    CNN has been reporting that paki troops are on the move.

    If my hunch in right, something big will happen in next 24 hours.





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  • Marphad
    12-17 03:35 PM
    I respect your post.

    Marphad,

    In the recent past, I expressed my views about the same subject on this forum. I was very angry with what happened in Mumbai. The desire to fix the wrong has not faded, but now that I look back, I regret some of the things I said at that time. My comments did not do any good and some of the coments offend few others on this forum. Those who felt offended by my comments are just as entitled to these forums as I am. I am not trying to be politically correct, just trying to say that it doesn't serves any purpose to discuss this issue on IV fourms.

    Branding all people from a specific faith doesn't help in anyways. For too long men have fought because of religion and each such time was avoidable.

    I do have a suggestion. To get some perspective, I suggest you watch the bollywood movie "New York", although I am not a big fan of bollywood movies.

    Peace.


    .





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  • jnraajan
    06-05 02:25 PM
    It is December 1st not November 30th.

    http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/faq.php

    Actually, It has to before Dec Ist, so technically, you should have closed the house at least on Nov 30th.





    gapala
    12-24 08:17 PM
    I know you must have left the forums by now. But I find it interesting how you are being misled by the so called leaders in India itself. Check this column by Tarun Vijay http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Columnists/Tarun_Vijay_Thou_shalt_rise_again/articleshow/3882599.cms Check out the differences between Shabana and other muslim leaders on the forum. Interesting!

    Insightful article. Imagine what is going on under currents... they seems to have 2 faces. There is a investigative video floating in youtube where one idiot is preaching youths in UK to show secular face to society until achieve their goal. Same idiot goes out and conducts interfaith conference and talks about unity. what a hypocrat.





    hpandey
    06-26 03:33 PM
    Would you share what calculator are you using.

    I used one here:
    Mortgage Calculator - Bankrate.com (http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/mortgage-calculator.aspx)

    Loan Amount: 600K (Note much less than million dollars)
    Period: 30 years fixed
    Interest Rate: 5% (On the lower side using historical averages)
    Monthly Payment: 3220.93

    Total Interest Paid across 30 years: 559,534.71

    In general the thumb rule is across 30 years you will always pay interest which is approx equal to the principal you signed up for.

    Am i missing something here ?

    Good figure to make 600K loan .. that must mean people are buying at least a 650,000 house across the whole of US . You are talking about prices going down across economy you should take the average home value also across US which is definately not 600K or else most of people will never be able to buy a house.

    I am taking about a home of an average 450K ( even that is more than the US average ) and at least 10 % down.

    I don't think even anyone here would buy a 600K house in this economy to say the least !

    Lets stick to real world calculations.